Understanding the present

The Asia Pacific region is a market of more than 2 Billion people and there are many countries within the region. The size and differences means that agencies do not have an easy time targeting and creating ads for this region. Therefore agencies typically deal with the fragmented region by having local offices in each country with some countries as the headquarters for certain regions. Different creatives and media strategy have to be crafted for different markets.

The AP region is of great interest to mobile advertisers because of the fast rising affluence of consumers and how widespread mobile devices are helping to bring the masses online. However agencies have to deal with the reality of fragmentation in the Asian market due to economic, technological and cultural differences. The countries are so different in nature that the same media strategy and creative execution will rarely work cross markets. Thus this article looks into how marketeers can understand and recognize mobile device penetration in AP countries and modify their mobile media and creation campaign strategy.

There is a easy way to segment the current OS penetration in the Asia region which can be divided into two main segments of the “Haves” and “Have Nots”.

In the “Have” segment, countries have high smartphone penetration and good 3G access networks. In the “Have Nots” regions, the countries have low smartphone penetration with low 3G access and the data typically looks like that of a “Have” country from 3 years ago before 3G data plans became affordable and smartphones with good internet browsers came onto the market.

Mobile OS market share derived browsing data

One can approximate smartphone penetration by the extent of economic development in country. This chart shows what mobile OSes are used to access the internet and it clearly shows the distinction between the countries that use smartphones and the countries that do not.

Currently in AP, there are 3 main OSes and they are

1. iOS in light blue,
2. Android in dark blue and
3. Symbian and others in Green.

Because mobile marketing is highly dependent on how consumers use their phones and what technology is available on their phone, understanding this chart will help you shape the media and creative that you will recommend to the client.

In the “Have” countries a brand can make apps and expect good downloads and reception. These are usually iOS and Android apps given the high penetration of these 2 mobile OS among the smartphone segment. Games and sponsored utilities apps are the most popular choices for apps as advertising/marketing vehicles. Good mobile browsers and In-app advertising also means that you can buy display advertising in volume with the expectation that your ads will reach most of the population and at high enough frequency. A brand can also take advantage of the latest rich media ad formats that are generally supported by smartphones which means that branding campaigns can be executed on mobile devices.

In the “Have Not” countries, mobile marketing is more limited in media and creative. They are usually simple text messaging and WAP sites. Because of the difficulty in supporting WAP site creation among the fragmentation of feature phones and inferior browser technology , site creation is more complicated. This means most mobile advertising is text messaging. Reach and cost is also an issue as SMS campaigns are much more expensive to implement than mobile display advertising. Therefore SMS is usually used as a activation medium to elicit direct response from consumers compared to being a branding channel. Some brands might even decide that mobile does not meet their objectives and therefore allocate the budget to TV where the reach and frequency is the highest as most consumers’ time is spent watching TV content.

Projecting the future

Mobile has made a phase change with the introduction of smartphones around end 2008 in the AP region. Looking at Singapore’s data from 3 years ago, we can try to project what is the most likely outcome in the next 12-18 months in the “Have Nots” countries.

Singapore’s Mobile OS share of web page impression after the iPhone was released for about 6 months in Dec 2008.

After the launch of iPhone, we can immediately see Symbian’s share being eroded as iOS quickly rides to the top. The iPhone made it much more user friendly to browse the web and use apps. It led to a huge increase in the iPhone browsing traffic. For 18 months, there wasn’t much competition for the iPhone as it took more market share. Around mid 2010, operators started to push Android devices to consumers as the iPhone Alternative. The Galaxy S, launched as the spearhead of Android Phones, quickly became popularly with consumers.From then Android takes a huge leap and into its current second place position. As it stands, iOS and Android commands more than 50% of mobile traffic in Singapore.

The historical data has shown that it takes 18 months from the introduction of smartphones for a country to transition from a “Have Not” to a “Have” country. Thus the question is then given that smarpthone prices are constantly dropping and data networks are becoming more affordable in the “Have not’ countries, will the country make the leap into “Have” group in the next 18 months?

One can make a prediction by looking at smartphone adoption rate over the past year as Android devices make their way into the “Have Not” countries. In the case of Singapore, Smartphones marketshare increased from 0% to 15% in 6 months ad iOS overtook Symbian’s marketshare 6 months after launch. We will use these 2 indicators as guidelines for our projection.

Predictons

Linear projection showing which mobile smartphone OS will likely be the dominant OS in the country in the next 18 months.

Prediction of which countries will have more than 50% smartphone penetration in the next 18 months

From the guidelines above, one can predict that China(iOS), Philippines(Android), Vietnam(iOS) & Malaysia(Android) will cross over to the “Have” group soon. However two out of the three largest markets in AP (India and Indonesia) have shown small smartphone growth and are predicted to have little smartphone growth due to backward data networks and the lack of purchasing power among the masses.

Conclusion and recommendations

This article has laid out the current mobile landscape around us. Asia is a complicated place but the overall trends are that

1. Leading Mobile OSes are Symbian, iPhone and Android = Apps and websites should be built for these platforms
2. iPhone & Android are the handsets of the future = Marketers should be run experimental campaigns in the Have countries which can be extended the the general AP region when the “Have Not” countries move into the “Have” group.
3. Large markets like India and Indonesia are unlikely to be smartphone friendly = Feature phone marketing skills is still necessary
4. Apps and Rich Media Ads work well in Have regions, text messaging pretty much the only medium of mobile marketing in Have Not regions.

This article originally appeared on my company’s blog (http://2359media.com/companyblog/)

2359 Media is Asia’s leading mobile consultancy and the preferred choice for cross platform mobile engagement strategies. 2359 Media helps its clients better understand, leverage and profit from the rapidly evolving mobile marketing landscape by providing a full suite of mobile solutions from strategizing mobile objectives, producing intelligent mobile applications and advertisements, to distribution and measurement.

For more information, please visit http://2359media.com/

/*

Disclaimer: This will sound very Apple Fan boy like!!! I really meant for the article to show that most people need a simpler computer. The iPad with all its hype right now is a great example of what could be

*/

The iPad is an oversized iPod Touch. There I said it and I mean it. However most people will be happy enough with an iTouch if they had only that device. After all it does most of what people require in a home PC. If you are reading this, you are probably not in the “most people” segment that the iPad is targeting. But let me show you why the iPad will work for “Most people”

For example here is what “Most people” do on their PCs at HOME: Email, Websurfing, Facebooking, IMing and gaming of the solitaire and facebook apps variety.

For most people, it actually means they only need a moderatly powered computer. In fact other than the small screen size which limits how long you can use it for, the iPod touch software can already fulfill most of their needs. Apple is betting that a larger iPod Touch will actually become the home PC for non geeks. The home PC is used for consumption of content, communication and entertainment. It does little serious work/numbers processing nor does it need to run developer IDEs etc.

Here is how the iPad story will play out from becoming a shared home appliance to a personal entertainment device.

Joe a tech geek/ Mac fan boy buys an iPad when it launches. He tries using it for a couple of months and finds it underwhelming. It can’t do what his netbook/notebook can do and his iPhone seems to be already able to do all the iPad can do and even more. Gradually, the iPad is left at home since Joe sees no need to bring this device with him. Joe decides to leave the iPad at his parent’s home the next time he visits.

Joe’s mum, Tina, who has been struggling to use a PC for over a decade discovers the iPad. The touch interface is surprisingly intuitive for her generation. She also understands that like electrical appliances, each app has its own single use. She setups her email, opens safari and after a week, the home PC is never switched on again. When she cooks, instead of printing out a receipt from allrecipes.com like she used to, she instead now uses the allrecipe app she downloaded from the app store.

In the next few months, Joe’s Dad, Tom, also discovers the iPad. Tina uses it for about a hour a day sending emails to friends and doing some facebook so there is still plently of time that Joe’s dad can use the iPad. Tom is a heavy user of the iPad. He spends hours a day reading on the iPad. There are newspapers, ebooks and magazine that could fill up his day.

As Tina and Tom increases their usage of the iPad, friction arises on who should get priority. To relieve the tension/potential conflict, Tom goes out and purchases another iPad. After all its only $499.

Now with an iPad of her own, Tina brings the device out regularly when she meets her friends. The iPad is a great device for sharing photos and playing multiplayer games. Tina friends get iPad evny and soon own their own set.

New York Times: Nov 23rd 2010 : Geeks buying iPads from their Moms and Dads for Thanksgiving

You’re headed home next week to a turkey feast with all the trimmings – and Mom and Dad’s computer. You know what’s going to happen.

I keep getting these pop ups, he’ll say. It’s just been so slow lately, she’ll say. I keep seeing this flashing picture of a roulette wheel that just won’t go away. Can you take a look at it?

That is what used to happen every year when geeks get home. This year something is different. For the first time, geeks can do something about it. John, like thousands of tech geeks fed up with the yearly PC fix ups, have purchased iPads to bring home to their parents this thanksgiving.

“My mum has been asking if an iPad can replace the PC at home. She saw her friend’s iPad and is totally in love with it. So this thanksgiving, I am getting her an iPad. I am hopeful that I will won’t be getting anymore support calls for the next year.”

Like the Wii, the iPad seem to be catching on as a gift for the less technologically savvy segment of the population. The parallels are uncanny. Both innovate on user interfaces, both are cheaper and underpowered compared to their counterparts and both are hugely popular with the non-geeks.

–Sarah Green

Written on my iPad

Firstly I have not been diligent in blogging for both CS3216 and for my own blog. CS3216 is coming to an end and it is time for a blog post that wraps up everything.

This is probably the only course in NUS that teaches soft skills although you learnt a lot of other stuff.

Of all the lessons, the classes that I enjoyed the most were the Facebook Application Seminar and the plenary session with local entrepreneurs.

 For the seminar, I though the presentation style of all the groups were worth learning from. It was an enjoyable class to attend because one can just sit back and let your classmates entertain you with their presentation.

For the plenary session, it was enjoyable because it struck a personal note with me. What I really got out of that session was sales/getting someone to pay you. It is still something I have to remember and improve on.

Review of my goals

This is what I wrote for my personal statement when I applied for the course.

1.      I have a strong interest in web technologies as I want to learn how to work with API. I intend to build both use APIs and also create an API for my final year project. 

Although I have a strong understanding of Facebook’s API, I haven’t had the chance to actually implement my own API. I am pretty sure that I will need the skill set 6 months down the road though so there will be a focus on that.

2.      I also want to have a better understanding of user acquisition via social media platforms like Facebook. 

Hmm…Throughout the course I didn’t have time to focus on user acquisition. In part because I was doing the development side and in initial stages of a project, the development needs to be done before sales can start. Before the course, I thought I would have a chance to actually try out A/B testing for user acquisition but once we got into the projects, getting the product right and out the door overshadowed user acquisition.

3.      I also want to take this chance to expand my Final Year Project into the existing social media space.

Social media has really gotten onto the radar over the last 6 months. I am not sure why but people + newspapers + companies are becoming interested. I wanted to use Facebook to expand my FYP but given the change of direction, that will have to be delayed.

Looking at this, I think I have reached none of the 3 goals. My FYP was very strongly involved in the first and last goal. However a change of direction had led me away from my wanting to build an API.  But nonetheless, if everything went according to what I wanted, then the class would not have been fun.

2 main things I have learnt

From the class: A Team = People (mix of talents) who can work well together

From the project: Product Development = Making a product someone wants in the way that fulfils his goal = ask for feedback and iterate again & again

From the entrepreneurs: Sales and getting someone to pay you is really important for product validation

One Last thing: Thanks to Prof Ben for conducting this class. It was a really enjoyable class. Nothing like a lot of work to make you learn. Also thanks for pointing out my “problem” of not being focused enough on my projects. Now that school is coming to an end, I believe I have found my focus(2359media)(nothing like having investors and co-founders kicking your butt to keep a  focus)

For myself, I can’t really differentatite between Modularity, Decomposition, Abstraction and SoC.

In my mind, Modularity is the over arching princinple. Abstraction is the depth of modularity and SoC is the width of modularity

Anyway there are a lot of similariteis between software design and organisational design, so much so that when the design is wrong, the same errors occur. Today I am going to do a paraody of design gone wrong because I feel like doing something relaxing on a sat night.

As we know exceptions have to be caught and thrown in Java, but what happens if an exception is raised in a organisational context?

So The 5 key ingredients are:

1. Abstraction and Information Hiding
Try{
        Approach wrong person to do task A
}catch{
        If boss
                This is a minor detail, ask XX to handle it.

        else

                I have to ask my boss. I have no decision power on this. 

}

2. Separation of Concerns (SoC)
Try{
        Approach wrong department to do enquire about how to do B
}catch{
        I do not handle this. You have come to the wrong department, I can’t help you. Please hold, Let me transfer you to XX department
        Call Function SoC(enquiry that will never get anywhere);
}

3. Modularity, Decomposition
I can’t think of anything for this? COntributors?

4. Generality
Try{
        Never follow instructions to the letter.
}catch{
        Argh, I told you you have to give me the original and 2 photocopies. On the photocopy you must chop certified True copy. This is wrong, I can’t process this.
        Application.Quit;
        Windows.Exit;
        Process.kill;
}

5. Design for Change
Try{
        Explaining to top management that the company needs a facebook app.
}catch{
        ”This is not the way that we do things. We have done it this way for 10 years. Anyway people can go to our website.”
        ”What’s this new facebook thing? Why spend money on something no one will use.”
        Sender.demote();
        Sender.paycut();

}

eof!

UI design Case Study

UI design is important but how do you get feedback from your users? One could do user testing sessions and users will tell you what they do not like. However how do you quantify which UI is better? So this blogpost is just an awareness blog post to let you know that AB testing exist and is used in many large websites (especially with e-commerce sites)

This is where testing comes in. Web A/B testing in short is dynamically changing some parts of the website and measuring the users’ responses towards a goal.

Example: Shopping cart

Goal: Increase click through for add to cart

Measure: Number of clicks on add to cart

Change: buy button color (red/Blue)

Software like google web optimiser helps you do this. Basically it helps you randomly swap the 2 images (red Add to cart vs blue Add to Cart) over a sample size and meaure the page conversion.

In this way you will know which the BETTER approach is.

Art vs Science

Measurement and testing is the science part. But before there is the ART part.

Art part (use common sense)

1.      At least a working system

2.      Need to determine what your goal is

3.      Determine what the measurement is

4.      The variations

Overall the new Project Page is too hard to post a new project. I am not sure if the fields below are required but it seems that the fields below are probably unnecessary as they will not help a giver to decide if he would want to help the reciever.

Confusing Nav Bar system: I thought top is main navigation and side is sub nav of main sections. But when I reache this section, it doesn’t look so because overview is not part of the main nav system

Examine a helper’s state of mind right now because this is where you will likely see call for help request

2 questions are abound in a potential giver’s mind

1) Can I help him – Do I have sufficient Knowledge to help him (Yes/No/Maybe)

2) Do I want to help him? – This is more complex as it involves my resource and my likeness for the person and many more variables since everyone thinks in a different way

How does the app help answer the 2 questions?

Can I help him? If title is descriptive then this answer can be answered easily. If not the giver has to read the description which is a page away. Should the description be directly below the feed?

DO I want to help him? : If he is your friend, then giver can make decision internally. If not friend, then there is no clue if this person is worth helping.

Interaction Cycle

Overview:The goal is to connect people together. 1 with the need(Reciever) and 1 with the skill(Giver)

Therefore you have to start with 1 type of person first and hope the other will come.

So which one should be the first?(Reciever or the Giver)

Here the developers have chosen to start with the Reciever. People in need post their problems and hope people with skill will see their call for help. 

What considerations should be used to determine whether to be giver centric / reciever centric?

1) Which is easier to accquire?

Givers are easier to accquire because skills have more staying power than problems.

The number of people with skills are also more than those with problems at a given time.

People who post their availablitiy on apps like these are also more willing to actually give help

2) will the latter follow with the first group?

When a person has problem, he will engage is solution searching mode which means they are likely to find your app. If there are givers, then the reciever can connect with the givers. If there are no givers, the reciever has to post his problem.

When a person has a skill, he does not engage is listing his skills everywhere but waits to be reached out to. So even if the app has receivers, it needs a huge polling effort to find givers.

User Encouragement

There needs to be some form of economy so those who help can get help in the future. In my image posted above, I propose an economy based on reputation points where givers and recievers can exchange points for help. This will be useful in deciding if someone should be helped and also allow the giver to exchange his help for help from others in the future.

iTunes Link

From Mallment.com

Find out more here: Mallment.com

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/david_s_rose_on_pitching_to_vcs.html

The Summary

It is about you

What do the VC wants to know about you
Integrity – That you are honest and the company is legit
Passion – That you are fired up about your idea
Experience – That you have some experience in getting a company and product up and selling
Knowledge – That you know your domain
Skill – Forgot about this
Leadership – That you can assemble and lead a team
Commitment – THat you won’t run at the first sign of trouble
VIsion – A product that can change the world
Realism – You should be rational in your goals

Template
- Get their attention
- Solid steady upward path to the end message
- Boom (Emotional High)
- Logical Progression
- How the market is
- How we are going to do it

Up

Things I know/understand
External Validatioin
Believable upside

Down
THings i know are not true
Things I do not understand
Things that make me think
Internal Inconsitency
Typo Error unprepareness

coachability – that you should be open to advice and coaching

Japanese Express

This is another new stall in NUS Engine Canteen. In fact it just opened 2 weeks ago. It replaced that horrible Nonya store that always had no queue. I went there twice in the last six months and they always didn’t have what I wanted so I was forced to compromise on whatever they have. Their food is ok but nothing special. I am glad to say that this new Japanese stall is a much better improvement.

Sakana Karsu Curry Rice Set

Sakana Karsu Curry Rice Set

I ordered the Sakana Karsu Curry Rice set. It was an opening promotion so it was only $3 Basically its breaded fish with Japanese Curry dripped over rice. I think this is better than the Arts Canteen stall. The curry is not very spicy even after I sprinkled some chilli powder on it. The portion is pretty good for school canteen size. For the breaded fish, the breading is not too thick so you can still taste the fish. The fish is so so. Nothing Special about it.

Japanese Express
TechnoEdge Canteen 10 Kent Ridge Crescent

Firstly here is my simple excel table on how the revenue numbers was generated that I mentioned in the Graffiti Presentation. One can debate about the numbers and estimations but that is the beauty of having a financial model. A model breaks down assumptions and helps you reach a reasonable value for each of the assumptions thus creating a suitable range of values that you will receive.

One should focus on getting a reasonable output range of values instead of just specific values because there is too much uncertainty in defining specific values. Plus in this case, what is important is how the 4 sources compared relative to each other.